Gartner, isosiyete ikora ubushakashatsi n’isesengura ry’ikoranabuhanga, yerekanye ko mu 2024, abakora amamodoka bazakomeza gukora cyane kugira ngo bahangane n’impinduka zazanywe na software ndetse n’amashanyarazi, bityo bitangire mu cyiciro gishya cy’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi.
Amavuta n'amashanyarazi byageze kubiciro byihuse kuruta uko byari byitezwe
Ibiciro bya bateri biragabanuka, ariko ibiciro byumusaruro wamashanyarazi bizagabanuka cyane bitewe nikoranabuhanga rishya nka gigacasting. Kubera iyo mpamvu, Gartner iteganya ko mu 2027 imodoka z’amashanyarazi zizaba zihenze kuyikora kuruta ibinyabiziga bya moteri yaka imbere kubera ikoranabuhanga rishya ryo gukora ndetse n’ibiciro bya batiri.
Ni muri urwo rwego, Pedro Pacheco, visi perezida w’ubushakashatsi muri Gartner, yagize ati: “OEM nshya yizeye kuzasobanura uko inganda z’imodoka zimeze. Bazana tekinoroji yubuhanga yoroshya ibiciro byumusaruro, nkubwubatsi bwimodoka ikomatanyirijwe hamwe cyangwa guhuriza hamwe gupfa, bifasha kugabanya ibiciro byinganda. igiciro no guterana, abakora amamodoka gakondo nta kundi babigenza uretse gukoresha udushya kugira ngo tubeho. ”
Mbere yuko raporo isohoka, Pacheco yatangarije Automotive News Europe ati: "Tesla n'abandi barebye inganda mu buryo bushya rwose."
Kimwe mu bintu bizwi cyane bya Tesla ni "guhuriza hamwe gupfa," bivuga gupfira imodoka nyinshi mu gice kimwe, aho gukoresha ingingo nyinshi zo gusudira hamwe n’ibiti. Pacheco n'abandi bahanga bemeza ko Tesla ari umuyobozi mushya mu kugabanya ibiciro byo guterana kandi akaba intangarugero mu guhuriza hamwe.
Kwemeza ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi byagabanutse ku masoko amwe n'amwe akomeye, harimo Amerika ndetse n'Uburayi, bityo abahanga bavuga ko ari ngombwa ko abakora ibinyabiziga bamenyekanisha imiterere ihendutse.
Pacheco yerekanye ko tekinoroji ihuriweho yo gupfa yonyine ishobora kugabanya ikiguzi cyumubiri cyera "byibuze" 20%, kandi kugabanya ibiciro bishobora kugerwaho ukoresheje paki ya batiri nkibintu byubaka.
Yavuze ko ibiciro bya batiri byagabanutse imyaka myinshi, ariko kugabanuka kwamafaranga yo guterana byari "ibintu bitunguranye" byazana ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi kuringaniza ibiciro hamwe nimodoka ya moteri yaka imbere bitatekerejwe. Yongeyeho ati: "Tugeze aha hantu hakiri kare kuruta uko byari byitezwe."
By'umwihariko, porogaramu yihariye ya EV yaha abakora amamodoka umudendezo wo gukora imirongo yo guterana kugirango ihuze nibiranga, harimo imbaraga ntoya hamwe na batiri hasi.
Ibinyuranye, urubuga rukwiranye na "powertrain nyinshi" zifite aho zigarukira, kuko zisaba umwanya wo kwakira igitoro cyangwa moteri / kohereza.
Mugihe ibi bivuze ko ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi ya batiri bizagera kuburinganire bwikinyabiziga gifite moteri yaka imbere byihuse kuruta uko byari byitezwe mbere, bizanongera cyane ikiguzi cyo gusana ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi.
Gartner iteganya ko mu 2027, impuzandengo yo gusana impanuka zikomeye zirimo ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi na batiri biziyongera 30%. Kubwibyo, ba nyirubwite barashobora guhitamo guhitamo gukuraho imodoka yamashanyarazi yaguye kuko amafaranga yo gusana ashobora kuba arenze agaciro kayo. Mu buryo nk'ubwo, kubera ko gusana kugongana bihenze cyane, amafaranga yubwishingizi bwimodoka nayo arashobora kuba menshi, ndetse bigatuma ibigo byubwishingizi byanga ubwishingizi kubintu bimwe na bimwe.
Kugabanya byihuse ikiguzi cyo gukora BEV ntibigomba kuza kubiciro byamafaranga menshi yo kubungabunga, kuko ibyo bishobora gutera abaguzi kugaruka mugihe kirekire. Uburyo bushya bwo gukora ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi byuzuye bigomba koherezwa hamwe nibikorwa byemeza amafaranga make yo kubungabunga.
Isoko ryimodoka yamashanyarazi ryinjira "kubaho kwizima"
Pacheco yavuze niba n'igihe kuzigama amafaranga ava mu binyabiziga by'amashanyarazi bihinduka mu giciro cyo kugurisha biterwa n'uwabikoze, ariko igiciro cyo hagati y'ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi n'ibinyabiziga bitwika imbere bigomba kugera ku buringanire mu 2027. Ariko yanagaragaje ko amasosiyete atwara amashanyarazi nka BYD na Tesla bafite ubushobozi bwo kugabanya ibiciro kuko ibiciro byabo biri hasi bihagije, bityo igabanuka ryibiciro ntirizangiza cyane inyungu zabo.
Byongeye kandi, Gartner iracyavuga ko izamuka rikomeye ry’igurisha ry’ibinyabiziga by’amashanyarazi, kimwe cya kabiri cy’imodoka zagurishijwe mu 2030 zikaba ari amashanyarazi meza. Ariko ugereranije na "zahabu yihuta" y'abakora imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi hakiri kare, isoko ryinjira mugihe cy "kubaho kwizima".
Pacheco yavuze ko 2024 ari umwaka w'impinduka ku isoko ry’imodoka z’amashanyarazi z’i Burayi, hamwe n’amasosiyete y’Abashinwa nka BYD na MG yubaka imiyoboro yabo yo kugurisha ndetse n’umurongo waho, mu gihe abakora imodoka gakondo nka Renault na Stellantis bazashyira ahagaragara imideli ihendutse mu karere.
Ati: "Ibintu byinshi bibaho muri iki gihe ntabwo byanze bikunze bigira ingaruka ku bicuruzwa, ariko barimo kwitegura ibintu binini".
Hagati aho, abantu benshi batangiye gutwara ibinyabiziga bikoresha amashanyarazi bahanganye n’umwaka ushize, harimo na Polestar, wagaragaye ko igiciro cy’imigabane cyamanutse cyane kuva cyashyizwe ku rutonde, na Lucid, wagabanije umusaruro w’ibicuruzwa 2024 ku 90%. Andi masosiyete afite ibibazo arimo Fisker, iri mu biganiro na Nissan, na Gaohe, iherutse kugaragara ko ihagarikwa ry'umusaruro.
Pacheco yagize ati: “Muri icyo gihe, abantu benshi batangiye bateraniye mu murima w'amashanyarazi bizeye ko bashobora kubona inyungu zoroshye - kuva ku bakora amamodoka kugeza ku masosiyete yishyuza amashanyarazi - kandi bamwe muri bo baracyashingira cyane ku nkunga zituruka hanze, bigatuma bakora cyane cyane kwibasirwa nisoko. Ingaruka z'ingorane. ”
Gartner iteganya ko mu 2027, 15% by'amasosiyete atwara ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi yashinzwe mu myaka icumi ishize azabona cyangwa ahomba, cyane cyane abishingikiriza cyane ku ishoramari ryo hanze kugira ngo bakomeze ibikorwa. Icyakora, “Ibi ntibisobanura ko inganda z’ibinyabiziga zikoresha amashanyarazi zigabanuka, byinjiye mu cyiciro gishya aho ibigo bifite ibicuruzwa na serivisi byiza bizatsinda andi masosiyete.” Pacheco ati.
Byongeye kandi, yavuze kandi ko “ibihugu byinshi bigenda bikuraho ingamba zijyanye n’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi, bigatuma isoko ritoroshye ku bakinnyi bariho.” Ariko, "twinjiye mu cyiciro gishya aho ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi bidashobora kugurishwa kubushake / inyungu cyangwa inyungu zidukikije. BEV igomba kuba ibicuruzwa bisumba byose ugereranije n'ibinyabiziga bitwika imbere. ”
Mugihe isoko rya EV ririmo guhuriza hamwe, kohereza no kwinjira bizakomeza kwiyongera. Gartner ivuga ko ibicuruzwa byoherejwe n'amashanyarazi bizagera kuri miliyoni 18.4 muri 2024 na miliyoni 20,6 muri 2025.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Werurwe-20-2024