"Igiciro kimwe ku mavuta n'amashanyarazi" ntabwo ari kure! 15% by'imbaraga nshya zo guharanira imodoka zishobora guhura na "ubuzima nubuzima nubuzima"

Gartner, Ubushakashatsi bwamahirwe Ubushakashatsi hamwe nisesengura isesengura, bwerekanye ko muri 2024, abakora siporo bazakomeza gukora cyane kugirango babone impinduka zazanywe na software no gutondekanya mu cyiciro gishya cy'ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi.

Amavuta n'amashanyarazi yageze ku kibari cyagenwe vuba kuruta ibiteganijwe

Ibiciro bya bateri biragwa, ariko ibiciro byamashanyarazi bizagabanuka byihuse gukemukira ikoranabuhanga bashya nkibikorwa. Kubera iyo mpamvu, Gartner yiteze ko ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi 2027 bizaba bihenze gukora kuruta ibinyabiziga bya moteri y'imbere kubera tekinoroji nshya yo gukora hamwe n'ibiciro bya bateri.

Ni muri urwo rwego, PEDRO Pacheco, Visi Perezida wa Visi muri Gartner, yagize ati: "Intanga nshya zizere cyo gucumura imiterere y'inganda zimodoka. Bazana tekinoroji yubuhanga bworohereza ibiciro byumusaruro, nka ubwubatsi bwifashijwe hagati cyangwa ihujwe na bapfamo, bifasha kugabanya ibiciro byo gukora. Ikiguzi no guterana, abikora gakondo nta kundi byagenda uretse gukurikiza udushya kugira ngo tubeho. "

Pacheco yandikiye amakuru yimodoka ya Automotive Uburayi I Burayi mbere yo kurekura raporo.

Umwe mu bashya ba TESLA akomeye "apfa apfa - guta," bivuga gupfa - guta imodoka nyinshi mu gice kimwe, aho gukoresha inyongeramuco zisusurutsa no kumemeka. Pacheco nizindi mpuguke zizera Tesla numuyobozi ukurikirana mugukata ibiciro byo guterana numupayiniya mu pfa-guta.

Kwemererwa ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi byatinze ku masoko menshi, harimo na Amerika n'Uburayi, bityo abahanga bavuga ko ari ngombwa ko bakora siporo ihazamo moderi.

Pacheco yerekanye ko tekinoroji yapfuye yonyine ishobora kugabanya ikiguzi cyumubiri wa "byibuze" 20%, nibindi bicuruzwa birashobora kugerwaho mugukoresha amapaki yibice.

Ibiciro bya bateri byaguye, ariko ibiciro by'iteraniro byari "ikintu gitunguranye" cyazana ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi mu biciro byo gutwika moteri yimbere vuba. Yongeyeho ati: "Turimo kugera kuri iyi ngingo ingingo y'ibanze kuruta uko byari byitezwe."

By'umwihariko, urubuga rwihariye EV rwitangiye kwidegereza umudendezo wo gushushanya imirongo yinteko kugirango ikwiranye nibiranga, harimo powerrains ntoya na bateri ya bateri.

Ibinyuranye, ibibuga bikwiranye na "byinshi-powertrains" bifite aho bigarukira, nkuko bisaba umwanya wo kwakira tank ya lisansi cyangwa moteri / kohereza.

Mugihe ibi bivuze ko ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi bizagera ku bupamba cy'ibiciro hamwe na moteri yo gutwika imbere kuruta mbere mu ibanje, bizana byongera ikiguzi cyo gusana ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi.

Gartner ahanura ko muri 2027, impuzandengo yikigereranyo cyo gusana impanuka zikomeye zirimo imibiri yimodoka na bateri izamuka 30%. Kubwibyo, ba nyir'ubwite barashobora guhitamo guhitamo gutwara ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi mugihe ibiciro byo gusana bishobora kuba birenze agaciro kayo. Mu buryo nk'ubwo, kubera ko kugongana bihekejwe bihenze, ubwishingizi bw'imodoka burashobora kuba hejuru, ndetse bigatuma amasosiyete y'ubwishingizi ahakana kwishyuza bimwe.

Byihuta ugabanye ikiguzi cyo kubyara bevs ntigikwiye kuza kubiciro byo kuba amafaranga menshi yo kubungabunga, kuko ibi bishobora gutera umuguzi usubiza inyuma mugihe kirekire. Uburyo bushya bwo gukora ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi byuzuye bigomba koherezwa hamwe na gahunda ishakisha ibiciro bike byo kubungabunga.

Isoko ryimodoka yamashanyarazi ryinjira "kubaho kuri stature nziza"

Pacheco yavuze niba amafaranga yo kuzigama ibinyabiziga ahindura ibiciro byo kugurisha ibicuruzwa bishingiye kuri 2027. Ariko yerekanaga ibigo byimodoka

Byongeye kandi, Gartner aracyahanura iterambere rikomeye mu kugurisha ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi, hamwe na kimwe cya kabiri cy'imodoka zagurishijwe muri 2030 kubera ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi. Ugereranije na "zahabu yihuta" y'abakora amashanyarazi hakiri kare, isoko ryinjira mugihe cya "kubaho neza".

Pacheco yasobanuye 2024 nkumwaka wo guhindura isoko ryibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi, hamwe n'amasosiyete y'Abashinwa nka Byg na MG kubaka imiyoboro yabo yo kugurisha no gutunganya imiyoboro igurisha, mu gihe imiyoboro gakondo izaba itanga moderi yo hasi.

Ati: "Ibintu byinshi bibaho muri iki gihe ntibishobora byanze bikunze kugurisha, ariko barimo kwitegura ibintu binini".

Hagati aho, ibinyabiziga byinshi by'amashanyarazi byahagurutse mu mwaka ushize, harimo n'i polekarisi, byabonye ibiciro byayo byo kugabana. Na Lucide Andi masosiyete afite ibibazo arimo fisker, ibiganiro na Nissan, na Gaohe, biherutse kugaragara mu guhagarika umusaruro.

Pacheco yaravuze ati: "Hanyuma, abantu benshi batangira bateraniye mu murima w'imodoka mu myizerere yo kwizirika ku nyubako z'amashanyarazi, ndetse bamwe muri bo bakomeje kwishingikiriza ku nkunga z'amashanyarazi, byatumye bibasirwa cyane ku isoko. Ingaruka z'ibibazo. "

Gartner ahanura ko muri 2027, 15% byamasosiyete yamashanyarazi yashinzwe mumyaka icumi ishize izahabwa cyangwa ngo ihomba, cyane cyane izimukira cyane hanze ishoramari hanze kugirango ukomeze ibikorwa. Ariko, "Ibi ntibisobanura ko inganda z'amashanyarazi zigabanuka, gusa zinjira murwego rushya aho ibigo bifite ibicuruzwa na serivisi byiza bizatsinda ibindi bigo." Pacheco yavuze.

Byongeye kandi, yavuze kandi ko "ibihugu byinshi byifashishije bijyanye n'ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi, bigatuma isoko ritoroshye kubakinnyi bariho." Ariko, "turimo kwinjira mu cyiciro gishya aho ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi bidashobora kugurishwa ku buryo buteganijwe / kugenerwa cyangwa inyungu z'ibidukikije. Bevs igomba kuba ibiciro byose birenga ugereranije nibinyabiziga byo gutwika imbere. "

Mugihe isoko rya EV rihuriza hamwe, kohereza no kwinjira bizakomeza gukura. Gartner ahanura ko kohereza ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi bizagera kuri miliyoni 18,4 z'amanota 1824 na 20.6 muri 2025.